000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE FEB 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 04N89W TO 04N106W. ITCZ AXIS 05N130W TO 
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS NEAR 09N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM 
SE OF TROUGH.  

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N123W TO 20N131W. SCATTEROMETER DATA 
AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON BOTH 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD APPROACHING 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
GRADUALLY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS.

WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRES RIDGE IS PRESENT SE OF THE COLD FRONT. 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA AND LOWER PRES ALONG 10N IS 
SUPPORTING 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 07N-11N W OF 100W. HIGH 
PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT TODAY WITH AN INCREASE OF THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE 
TRADES.

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL 
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WED EVENING. IN FACT...THE 
FNMOC EFS GALE PROBABILITY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE 
WINDS VERY CLOSE TO 30N140W BY WED EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
CREATE ANOTHER SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO 
THE AREA BY WED WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING NEAR 19-20 FT OVER 
THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES S-SW WINDS WILL APPROACH 35 KT WED AFTERNOON THROUGH 
EARLY THU IN EXTREME NW PART OF FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO WAIT 
ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO FOR BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN GLOBAL 
MODELS TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS 
CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE EAST PACIFIC. STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS IS CREATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON 
BUT REMAIN VERY STRONG AT 25-30 KT THROUGH THU MORNING. 
NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL 
THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. DIURNAL FORCING OF 
WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THU.

$$
GR