000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 05N100W TO 06N110W. ITCZ AXIS 06N100W 
TO 07N114W TO BEYOND 07N140W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 103W AND 
110W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM INTENSE 965 MB LOW NW OF AREA NEAR 
42N145W ENTERS THE FORECAST WATERS NEAR 30N135W THEN CONTINUES 
SW BEYOND 25N140W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED ON 
SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N. FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY WITH GALE 
FORCE WINDS ENDING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS EXTENDING 30N123W TO 20N132W 
EARLY TUE MORNING...AND FROM 30N116W TO 24N116W EARLY WED 
MORNING WHEN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
REGION HAS WEAKENED THE TRADE WINDS NORMALLY FOUND NEAR 10N E OF 
115-120W. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW THE 
TRADES TO REDEVELOP BY WED.

ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW PRES CROSSING NW OF THE REGION WILL BRING 
FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS TO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA BY WED WITH SEAS OF 14-16 FT. 

ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC COVERING MOST OF THE AREA W 
OF 90W. PERIOD OF 18 SECONDS ARE NOTED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF 
THE SWELL TRAIN WHICH IS IMPACTING THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. A NEW 
SWELL TRAIN IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGIONAL WATERS BY EARLY 
TUE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO GALE FORCE 
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. AN EARLIER 
OSCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF THESE GALE FORCE WINDS. PEAK 
WINDS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 
FT. 30 KT WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN SW CARIBBEAN
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. EXPECT PERIODIC WINDS TO 20 KT IN THAT AREA.

$$
GR