000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON FEB 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 05N99W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 05N99W 
TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A PAIR OF PROGRESSIVE COLD 
FRONTS MIGRATING EASTWARD NORTH OF 20N. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 
974 MB STORM CENTER LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA AT 40N144W TO 
30N132W TO 24N140W. A FASTER MOVING REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL 
MERGE WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND REACH FROM 30N130W TO 
22N140W BY LATE MON. SHIPS WFLH AND WDC3786 REPORTED SOUTHERLY 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT 0000 UTC N OF 29N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. CONSENSUS OF GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/UKMET GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATES SOUTHERLY GALES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE 
REINFORCING FRONT MERGES WITH THE EASTERNMOST FRONT OVERNIGHT. 
THE UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING THE FRONTS LIFT TO THE NE THROUGH 
MON...ALLOWING THE COMBINED FRONTS TO WEAKEN THROUGH TUE BEFORE 
PUSHING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WED. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTEROMETER 
AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS IS 
RELATIVELY LIMITED...BUT WILL INCREASE IN SIZE AND INTENSITY 
STARTING TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE MERGED 
COLD FRONTS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
ALONG 120W FROM 10N TO 20N IS ENHANCING AREAS OF MODEST 
CONVECTION ABOUT 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.  
MEANWHILE...NW SWELL GENERATED FROM STORM CENTER FURTHER NORTH 
WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF 120W BY LATE TUE. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT 
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO 
BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO 
35 KT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING 
TO 10-13 FT. WINDS OF 30 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY TUE...BUT MAY SURGE AGAIN TO GALE 
FORCE LATE TUE DUE TO OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS. 

BY TUE...THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND FLOW WILL ARC TO THE SW AND W 
TO AS FAR AS 105W FROM 10N TO 15N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF 
THESE WINDS WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W LATE MON AND TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL  FUNNEL AGAIN THROUGH THE GAP IN 
TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON 
MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA.    

$$
CHRISTENSEN