000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 07N78W TO 06N98W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N98W TO 
06N120W TO BEYOND 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 989 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 33N143W
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION 
AREA PARTICULARLY N OF 26N W OF 136W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA 
TODAY AND MOVE N OF THE FORECAST WATERS AROUND 0000 UTC AS THE 
LOW PRES CENTER MOVES TO THE N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL 
USHER IN A LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO 
PEAK NEAR 18 FT LATE TODAY THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN START TO 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE. THE 
FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W AT AROUND 
06/1200 UTC AND FROM 30N129W TO 22N140W AT 07/0000 UTC THEN WILL 
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY TUE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES E 
ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA LATE TUE 
INTO WED. 

TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS 
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE NW CORNER OF 
THE FORECAST WATERS. EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20 KT COVERING THE AREA 
FROM 07N TO 11N W OF 130W WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT.

GAP WINDS...

N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH 
PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS 
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO 35 KT 
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
10-13 FT. WINDS OF 30 KT WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH EARLY TUE. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS A WEAK ROPE 
CLOUD MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH LIKELY 
DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT GAP WIND EVENT.

FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TODAY 
THROUGH MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL  
FUNNEL AGAIN THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY MON MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING 
WINDS TO 20 KT ACROSS THAT AREA.    

$$
GR