000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N81W TO 05N97W...THEN AS ITCZ AXIS 
TO 04N104W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

DEEPENING 991 MB LOW PRES CENTER LOCATED NW OF AREA NEAR 32N143W
IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN FAR NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION
AREA. VERY GOOD COMBINED COVERAGE FROM ASCAT WINDSAT AND OSCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES DURING PAST 6-12 HOURS WAS USED TO PINPOINT 
AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF GALES WILL
WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRES CENTER SKIRTS 
PAST NW PART OF FORECAST AREA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER 
IN A LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK 
NEAR 18 FT DURING THE LATE SUN THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...THEN START
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE. 

GAP WINDS...

N WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH 
PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS 
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. PEAK WINDS TO 40 KT 
ARE EXPECTED EARLY MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-14 FT. MINIMAL 
GALES WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH EARLY TUE.

FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TODAY 
THROUGH MON AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. 

$$
MUNDELL