000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050321
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 07N81W TO 06N88W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N88W TO 
04N100W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 994 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED W OF AREA NEAR 
30N145W. THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BROUGHT GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO THE NW PART OF THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN 
MORNING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER N 
OF THE AREA...THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE N OF THE 
AREA SUN AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW 
PART OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A 
LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 
18 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE 
STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THEY PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE 
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO 
SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD 
SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT. N 
WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL INCREASE TO GALE 
FORCE SUN NIGHT. 

NW WINDS OF 20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 
27N. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO COVER THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER 
MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN. 

$$
AL