000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 06N77W TO 04N80W TO 07N86W TO 03N101W TO 06N113W. 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N113W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1018 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N127W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 
06N TO 12N W OF 128W. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO 
FURTHER WEAKEN WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH TRADEWINDS BELOW 20 KT BY SUN. 

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A 998 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
LOCATED W OF AREA NEAR 30N145W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN 
AND PASS JUST NW OF THE AREA AS A 993 MB LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE GALE FORCE 
WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY SUN AFTERNOON AS THE LOW 
CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER N OF THE AREA SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT WITH 
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN ANOTHER LARGE SET OF NW SWELLS WITH 
COMBINED SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 18 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS 
THEY PROPAGATE SE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE DOWNSTREAM 
WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD IN 
ITS WAKE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT. N WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
SUN NIGHT. 

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWED NW WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA PARTICULARLY FROM 24N TO 28N. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 
KT ARE FORECAST TO COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUN AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO A 1034 MB 
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 

$$
AL