000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N110W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
05N110W TO 06N132W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
82W AND 85W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVELED AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS COVERING 
THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 127W. THESE WINDS WILL 
STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED 
NEAR 30N127W MOVES SE AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. 

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A 1000 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM CURRENTLY 
LOCATED W OF AREA NEAR 29N147W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY 
DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF 
THE AREA AS A 991 MB LOW TONIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS 10M 
WINDS OF 30-35 KT IN THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 137W AT 05/0000 UTC. 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA IN RESPONSE TO MODEL 
FORECAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 30N BY SUN MORNING...BUT 
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE GALE CENTER 
THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST WATERS AROUND 06/0600 UTC. LARGE 
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA W 
OF 110W THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO LATER TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG N WINDS 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE 
SUN NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA PARTICULARLY FROM 26N TO 30N. SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE FORECAST TO BLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS PRES GRADIENT 
INTENSIFIES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO A 1034 MB HIGH PRES 
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 

LATEST OSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY 
SUN MORNING.

$$
GR