000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT FEB 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 04N97W TO 04N102W...THEN 
AS ITCZ AXIS TO 06N116W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS WINDS 20 KT OR LESS OVER THE ENTIRE 
DISCUSSION AREA. HIGHEST WINDS WERE REGISTERED IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS ALONG 10N W OF 
127W. DRAINAGE WIND FLOW TO 20 KT IS ALSO EXPECTED IN A SMALL 
AREA OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE ON 
THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NW 
OF THE AREA EXTENDS TO A 1004 MB LOW NNW OF HAWAII NEAR 30N153W. 
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND APPROACH THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS A 992 MB LOW LATE 
TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 10M WINDS 30-35 KT 
IN AREA N OF 26N W OF 136W IN THE 18-30 HOUR TIME FRAME. BUMPED 
FCST WINDS HIGHER AND ISSUED GALE WARNING IN RESPONSE TO MODEL 
FORECAST. HIGHEST WINDS WILL SHIFT N OF 30N SUN...BUT NEAR GALE 
25-33 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON EITHER SIDE OF COLD FRONT SOUTH 
OF THE GALE CENTER THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. LARGE NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA W OF 110W 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE GALE 
FORCE LOW TRANSITS THROUGH THE FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT... 
USUAL AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS WITHIN 5 DEG LATITUDE OF 10N 
W OF 125W WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO LATER TONIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STRONG N WINDS FUNNELING
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT.

NW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
AS PRES GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO INTENSIFIES. 

$$
MUNDELL