000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT FEB 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 04N77W TO 06N86W TO 04N104W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
04N104W TO 07N111W TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 117W. 

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1018 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N127W. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 13N W OF 125W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
AREA FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT...THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE TRADE 
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATED OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA 
EARLIER TONIGHT. NW SWELL GENERATED FROM THIS FRONT WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 15 FT ARE COVERING THE NW PART OF THE AREA. 
THIS SWELL WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE SLOWLY 
SUBSIDING. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM FORCE LOW 
PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 46N141W WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF 
DISCUSSION AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY 
WINDS MOVING INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. THIS 
STRONG FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SET OF NW SWELLS INTO THE 
AREA. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 
WINDS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 
SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE DOWNSTREAM WINDS BELOW 20 KT OVER 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. FRESH 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL INCREASE TO 
NEAR GALE BY SUN AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE 
FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$
AL