000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 06N78W TO 05N90W TO 05N104W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
05N104W TO 06N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 
08N BETWEEN 104W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
AND EXTENDS FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W. THIS FRONT BISECTS HIGH 
PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH WEAK 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 
35N125W AND ANOTHER WEAK 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N129W. 
LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NW WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS AS HIGH OF 17 FT FOLLOWED THE FRONT FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REACHING NEAR 100W WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO AROUND 13 FT SAT 
MORNING...AND TO 11 FT BY SUN MORNING. THEN...A STRONGER COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GALE FORCE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH 
NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA SUN MORNING WITH STRONG TO 
NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. EXPECT 25-30 KT S-SW WINDS OVER NW PORTION SUN AND MON 
E OF THE FRONT AND 20-25 KT W-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT 
INTO MON...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 16 FT ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE FORCE LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE 
FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY 
COVERING 07N TO 13N W OF 123W WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL 
SUBSIDE...AND THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 110W WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 
SERIES OF NW SWELL TRAINS SWEEPING INTO THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC 
FROM SEVERAL VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR 
DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. 
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...WILL 
OCCUR SUN AND MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE 
SW GULF BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.

NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN N OF THE AREA AND A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO. 

$$
GR