000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI FEB 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N78W TO 06N85W TO 05N98W...THEN AS 
ITCZ AXIS TO 06N114W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 117W.

...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BISECTS HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WITH 
WEAK 1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N129W AND ANOTHER WEAK 1018 MB 
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N140W. LONG PERIOD SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 
TO 17 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SWEEP SE INTO FAR NW PORTION LATER
TODAY THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TO AROUND 14 FT EARLY SAT...AND TO 11
FT BY EARLY SUN. THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GALE
FORCE LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NW CORNER OF DISCUSSION AREA 
SUN MORNING WITH STRONG TO NEAR-GALE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 26N 
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT 25-30 KT S-SW WINDS OVER NW
PORTION SUN AND MON E OF THE FRONT AND 20-25 KT W-NW WINDS W OF 
THE FRONT...WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 15-20 FT ON MONDAY.

HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GALE FORCE LOW MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE 
FAR NW PORTION. AS A RESULT...USUAL AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS 
WITHIN 5 DEG LATITUDE OF 10N W OF 125W WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE WEAKENING TRADE WINDS 
WILL SUBSIDE...AND THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 110W WILL BE DOMINATED BY
A SERIES OF NW SWELL TRAINS SWEEPING INTO THE TROPICAL NE PACIFIC
FROM SEVERAL VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR 
DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. 
LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG N WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 
GALE FORCE...WILL OCCUR SUN AND MON STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.

NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA AND 
A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 

$$
MUNDELL