000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022122
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 07N77W TO 05N81W TO 06N86W TO 05N100W. ITCZ FROM 
05N100W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES 1023 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N128W WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 130W 
AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ENABLING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR 
NW PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FRI...BUT THE FRONT WILL 
USHER IN A FRESH SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS INTO THE AREA. 
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 15 FT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA 
FRI. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH AS FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN VEERS MORE TO THE EAST. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC AND WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON. 
LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG GAP FLOW...POSSIBLY TO 
GALE FORCE...WILL BE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH 
THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF THE AREA AND A 
TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 

$$
AL