000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 03N77W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL FLATTEN OUT THROUGH 
SAT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH MIGRATING EASTWARD 
INTO THE NE PACIFIC. THIS WILL WEAKEN ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE 
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38N125W AND PUSH IT FURTHER SOUTH TO 
28N125W AS A 1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTER...BLOCKING A STALLING AND 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NE OF HAWAII. THE AREA OF FRESH TRADE WIND 
FLOW FROM 05N TO 12N W OF 115W SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES WILL 
SHRINK WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BE CONTAINED FROM 05N 
TO 14N W OF 125W THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE...NW SWELL GENERATED 
FROM A SERIES OF LOW PRES AREAS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL 
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 
FT COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU. AS THIS 
INITIAL SWELL DECAYS BELOW 8 FT...A REINFORCING TRAIN OF NW 
SWELL WILL FOLLOW FRI.

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THU...THEN DIMINISH AS FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN VEERS 
MORE TO THE EAST. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH NORTHERLY 
FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS 
NOTED ON A 0320 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC 
AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
BY FRI AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG GAP 
FLOW...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...WILL BE SUN INTO MON AS A COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE SW GULF FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 
LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN N OF 
THE AREA AND A TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN