000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU FEB 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 05N77W TO 06N94W. ITCZ FROM 06N94W TO BEYOND 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N125W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 
16N W OF 115W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL WEAKEN ENABLING A 
COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. 
THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA BY 
FRI...BUT A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS WILL ENTER THE NW PART OF THE 
AREA...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 15 FT OVER THE FAR NW PART OF 
THE AREA BY FRI AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
WEAKENING...AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADEWINDS WILL DECREASE 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 
8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS GENERATED BY STORM SYSTEM 
OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PUSH SE. THIS SWELL WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING 
WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT EXPECTED TO COVER MOST OF THE AREA 
W OF 110W BY LATE THU. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER 
THIS AREA INTO THU. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EAST PACIFIC AND WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$
AL