000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED FEB 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N77W TO 03N80W TO 06N90W TO 05N95W. ITCZ 
FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 20N ALONG 135W WILL LIFT OUT TO 
THE NE BY THU IN PHASE WITH A PROGRESSIVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
DIGGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. WEST COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND WHILE THIS WILL 
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS S OF 30N AND W OF 140W...IT WILL 
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 
32N125W. SUBSEQUENTLY A BROAD AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS S 
OF THE HIGH PRES FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 20N W OF 120W WILL SHRINK 
IN AREA SOMEWHAT THROUGH LATE THU. MEANWHILE NW SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND PERIODS TO 18 SECONDS GENERATED BY 
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE AND COVER 
MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY LATE THU. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL REMAIN OVER 
THIS AREA INTO THU. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN