000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO BEYOND 
TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 90W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 33N139W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 26N115W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 05N TO 14N W OF 130W AND FROM 
10N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL MAINTAIN N OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
MAINTAINING THIS AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS. A FRESH ROUND OF NW 
SWELL WITH 18 SECOND PERIODS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE HAS MOVED 
INTO THE AREA. COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK AT 12 FT WEDNESDAY. THE 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT 
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W BY THU AFTERNOON. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE 
FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

THE FRESH WINDS ARE ALSO FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE 
GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PANAMA BY THU AFTERNOON. 

A RELATIVELY DENSER AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AIR MASS AND THE AIR MASS 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
AL