000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311538
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N94W. ITCZ FROM 05N94W TO 
06N120W TO 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 150W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THIS AREA. A SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH IS FURTHER E OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 22N BETWEEN 
105W AND 115W.  

IN THE DEEP TROPICS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S 
OF MEXICO FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. ABUNDANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION PRESENTLY FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 
107W. W OF THE TROUGH A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 100W.

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N144W. A SURFACE SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SE FROM THE HIGH TO SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
24N113W. NE TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 06N TO 13N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT. A NE SWELL TRAIN OF 8 TO 10 FT IS MOVING OVER THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WILL COVER THE AREA N OF 08N 
AND W OF 120W IN 48 HOURS.  

20-30 KT N-NE GAP WINDS ARE GOING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

20-25 KT E GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

20 KT N WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS LESS 
THAN 8 FT. THESE CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA