000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 03N78W TO 05N88W TO 05N95W. ITCZ FROM 05N95W TO 
05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N125W 
TO 18N140W THEN ON TO 05N145W. DESPITE DECENT UPPER 
FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY W OF 120W TO SUPPORT 
ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD 
ALONG 37N WILL TEMPORARILY COME IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE 
SOUTH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL 
BUILD NORTH OF 30N ALONG 135W TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH BY LATE 
WED...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST...A 1026 MB 
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 31N145W TO WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO 33N135W 
EARLY WED...THEN NE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY EARLY THU. THIS 
WILL MAINTAIN A MODEST AREA OF 15 TO  20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW 
MAINLY FROM 06N TO 15N W OF 125W. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 
0700 UTC SHOWED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT W OF 130W...SLIGHTLY LOWER 
THAN THE INITIALIZATIONS FROM BOTH THE WAVEWATCH AND ECMWF WAVE 
MODELS. NW SWELL FROM 8 TO 12 FT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE 
FAR WESTERN DISCUSSION AREA BY WED...REACHING AS FAR W AS 120W 
BY THU. 

E OF 110W...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
20N115W TO EQUATOR NEAR 80W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 102W AND 
108W. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSISTED BY LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE RELATED TO RESIDUAL FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW 
FROM BOTH THE GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. THE CONVECTION 
WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH 
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD OVER MEXICO THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL EXTEND ALONG 110W S OF 20N BY THU. 
THE GAP FLOW THROUGH BOTH AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE 
WED...BUT MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
LONG COMBINED PLUMES FROM BOTH AREAS WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS 
105W FROM 08N TO 13N...WITH E SWELL AS HIGH AS 10 FT TODAY. 
FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH NORTHERLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE WED AS THE WINDS 
DIMINISH AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH.

$$
CHRISTENSEN