000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N73W 1006 MB TO 
02N79W TO 05.5N86W TO 04N96W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 05N124W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 3-4 
DAYS...AND IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. PRESENTLY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE  
SPANS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N BETWEEN 115W AND 138W...WITH 
SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGHS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...BOTH 
TILTING INWARD TOWARD THE RIDGE AXIS. THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO CREATE UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO LINGER FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 
101W AND 113W. THE TROUGH TO THE W IS ANCHORED ON A DEEP LAYERED 
CUT OFF LOW NEAR 13N148W EXTENDING NE TO 23N138W....WHERE IT HAS 
LINKED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN INTACT 
WHILE THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY E FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...BEFORE THE CUT OFF LOW IS EJECTED OUT TO THE E-NE 
BEGINNING THU AND A NEW PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 120W...CENTERED ON A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N147W. NE 
TRADES AT 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WERE DEPICTED BY RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 134W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A BROAD ZONE OF 
MUCH STRONGER TRADEWINDS WERE FOUND FARTHER W...AND DUE SOUTH OF 
THE HIGH CENTER...EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED E AND 
OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...ACTING TO RELAX THE PRES GRADIENT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THE PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 
A SMALL AREA OF NORTHERLY WINDS 20-25 KT MAINLY COVERING THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY WED EVENING. 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC...PRODUCING GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MEANWHILE...GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING AS FAR W AS 
105W BY WED AFTERNOON...AND MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 9 FT THERE. 

$$
STRIPLING