000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 06N73W TO 03N78W TO 
07N89W TO 04N96W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON 
TO 06N115W TO 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 3-4 
DAYS...AND IS SOMEWHAT COMPLEX. PRESENTLY...A FLAT UPPER RIDGE  
SPANS THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 138W...WITH 
SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIDGE...BOTH 
TILTING INWARD. THE EASTERN MOST TROUGH CONTINUES TO CREATE 
UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...ALLOWING FOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO LINGER FROM 10N 
TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 113W. THE TROUGH TO THE W IS ANCHORED ON 
A DEEP LAYERED CUT OFF LOW NEAR 13N148W EXTENDING NE TO 
23N138W....WHERE IT HAS LINKED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING 
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
GENERALLY REMAIN IN TACT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE CUT 
OFF LOW IS EJECTED OUT TO THE E-NE BEGINNING THU.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 120W...CENTERED ON A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N147W. NE 
TRADES AT 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA WERE DEPICTED PER RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE THE 
RIDGE FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 135W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A BROAD 
ZONE OF MUCH STRONGER TRADEWINDS WERE FOUND FARTHER W...AND DUE 
SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER...EXTENDING AS FAR N AS THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. HAS TIGHTENED THE 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW GALE FORCE THIS 
AFTERNOON...AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED EVENING. 

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE BLOWING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SPILLING INTO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC...PRODUCING GAP WIND EVENTS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL CONTINUE 
ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MEANWHILE...GAP WINDS ACROSS PAPAGAYO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD 
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING AS FAR W AS 
105W BY WED AFTERNOON. 

$$
STRIPLING