000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JAN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 06N79W TO 04N95W. ITCZ FROM 04N95W 
TO 06N110W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE PATTERN N OF 20N HAS DE-AMPLIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS 
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM JET CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD AND IN 
THE PROCESS CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 13N145W...AND 
FLATTENING A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 125W S OF 30N. THE 
ASSOCIATED 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N133W WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT 
WEST THROUGH MID WEEK...AS DEEP LAYER TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE 
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS MAINLY FROM THE ITCZ TO 20 N W OF 130W. THE UPPER 
PATTERN N OF 20N WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY WED AS A STRONG 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES OUT OF THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD 
CALIFORNIA. THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP AND DRIFT EAST TO 135W 
BY WED. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW 
THE SURFACE HIGH TO BUILD SLIGHTLY RESULTING IN A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN TRADE WIND FLOW BY MID WEEK. 

CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST FROM 08N TO 
15N BETWEEN 93W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. THIS IS IN PART 
RESPONSE TO UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP NEGATIVELY 
TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM 15N110W TO EQUATOR AT 90W. THIS IS 
AIDED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO GAP WIND FLOW OUT OF THE 
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS AREA AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY 
MIGRATES EAST.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A 0640 UTC OSCAT PASS CAPTURED NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE WARNINGS WILL 
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATE NIGHT 
AND EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. A LARGE PLUME OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH 
ASSOCIATED NE TO E FRESH SWELL AS FAR WEST AS 105W BETWEEN 08N 
AND 13N.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND OVER NICARAGUA INTO 
THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS AS FAR W AS 91W. THE GAP FLOW AND 
RELATED FRESH SWELL WILL MIX WITH DIMINISHING GAP FLOW AND SWELL 
OUT OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE...REACHING AS FAR W AS 105W.

GULF OF PANAMA...0500 UTC OSCAT DATA OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA 
SHOW 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP...AN EXTENSION OF STRONGER 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS 
SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS NW MEXICO IS 
DAMPENING OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS 
WEAKENING. THIS IS ALLOWING WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT...AS DEPICTED BY A 0644 UTC OSCAT PASS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN