000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 4N78W 8N85W 4N100W. ITCZ FROM 4N100W 7N125W  
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 86W-92W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N136W TO 25N140W. SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-135W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-130W. A SHARP UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO 
THROUGH THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN AND MOVE E THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N96W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 85W. W OF THE TROUGH A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA E OF 20N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W. NE 
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
THE RIDGE FROM 6N-20N W OF 130W...WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. HAS ONCE AGAIN 
TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN 
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE 
CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MON...THEN DECREASE TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.

$$
DGS