000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 7N77N 4N92W. ITCZ AXIS 4N92W 6N110W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 
103W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 24N141W EXTENDS N-NW TO NEAR 28N143W...WITH TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING S-SE TO NEAR 05N132W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N135W...AND WAS AMPLIFYING N-NW TO BEYOND 
45N138W AS A VERY SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS APPROACHING FROM THE 
WEST. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS NE 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 
28N124W. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
ACROSS SW PORTIONS CONTINUES TO YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT E OF 130W 
FAVORABLE FOR VENTILATING DEEP CONVECTION. PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 130W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS 
HAS CREATED ITS OWN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...CENTERED 09N115W. 
DEEP CONVECTION BETWEEN 10N AND 13N E OF 108W HAS INDUCED 
FURTHER DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 119W. NE 
TO E WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE THE RIDGE N 24N BETWEEN 126W AND 136W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 11 
FT...WHILE N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT PREVAILED N OF 29N BETWEEN 
119W AND 126W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO LARGE NWLY SWELLS DOMINATE 
MUCH OF THE AREA WATERS N OF 7N W OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVE THROUGH ALL BUT THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE FRONT...WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. THIS IS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT WITH 
WINDS FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER GALE 
EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC BY EARLY SUN.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING