000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 7N77N 4N92W. ITCZ AXIS 4N92W 6N110W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 
105W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 22N140W THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 10N131W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N137W TO 17N125W 10N116W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHERN 
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO 5N102W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 105W-114W. MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 100W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 115W. NE 
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
THE RIDGE N 18N W OF 125W...WITH SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. OTHERWISE 
LARGE NLY SWELLS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 7N W OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH HAS TIGHTENED 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS RESULTING IN 
GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS 
FORECAST TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY LATER TODAY. ANOTHER GALE EVENT IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF 
TEHAUNTEPEC BY EARLY SUN.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$
DGS