000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262216
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 07N77W TO 05N92W. ITCZ AXIS 05N92W TO 07N108W TO 
07N127W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FAR NE 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
CENTRAL U.S. ALONG 95W...S-SW THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS TO NEAR THE 
W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N106W. AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUED ACROSS FAR W PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...CENTERED NEAR 23N140W...EXTENDING S TO NEAR 07N139W...AND 
REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. IN BETWEEN THESE 
TWO TROUGHS WAS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ON A 
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 30N127W. A VERY SHARP AND HIGH 
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT E TOWARDS W PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SAT AND WILL 
AID IN KICKING OUT THE CUT OFF LOW AND REORGANIZING THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE DOMINATING W PORTIONS OF THE AREA 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...CURRENTLY 
CENTERED NEAR 35N132W ON A 1032 MB HIGH...WITH RIDGE COVERING 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 108W. NE TO E TRADEWINDS AT 20 KT ARE 
OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 05N 
TO 28N W OF 130W AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W... 
WITH COMBINED SEAS RUNNING 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THESE FRESH TRADES N OF THE ITCZ CONTINUE 
TO GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO DEEP 
CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE BETWEEN 114W AND 125W...WHICH IS 
BEING AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE MOVING NE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 140W. THIS PERSISTENT REGION OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEGUN TO CREATE IT'S OWN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N121W. OTHERWISE...LARGE NWLY SWELLS 
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS EVENING AND 
TONIGHT...AND RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS GALE EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE 
SHORT LIVED...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING