000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 7N78W 5N88W. ITCZ AXIS 5N88W 4N95W 7N110W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 121W-127W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N138W THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
15N140W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF THE TROUGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR 28N122W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO 
NEAR 28N100W SW TO 22N106W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS A LARGE 
PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 105W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. NE 
TRADES AT 20 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
THE RIDGE FROM 5N-27N W OF 120W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
OTHERWISE LARGE NLY SWELLS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 5N W 
OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT.
THIS FORECAST TO BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT WITH WINDS BELOW GALE 
FORCE BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
DGS