000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 06N79W TO 03N86W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AXIS...CONTINUING ON TO 06N106W TO 06N124W 
TO 04N134W TO 04.5N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 
NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
30N125W...SPANNING E TO W BETWEEN 116W AND 135W...AND GENERALLY 
N OF 23N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION OVER W CENTRAL TEXAS SW ACROSS N MEXICO TO NEAR 
23N120W. NLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER TEXAS AND 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION 
ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA E OF 125W...INCLUDING BAJA  
CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO 
SHIFT E ALONG THE N GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE 
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS NW. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN THEN N ACROSS THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AND MONSOON 
TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA E OF 100W.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES...1032 MB...IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 34N130W IS STATIONARY. HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 15N W OF 108W...WITH NE TRADES AT 20-25 KT OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE FROM 
5N-28N W OF 129W...AND N OF 08N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. COMBINED 
SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE RUNNING 8 TO 12 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTALES CONTINUES TO YIELD FRESH N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE 
LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A 1656 UTC ASCAT PASS 
REVEALING WINDS TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LARGE NW 
SWELLS DOMINATE THE WATERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W... 
MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THU...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND 
THE FRONT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNRISE FRI MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING