000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JAN 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 6N77W 5N101W. ITCZ AXIS 5N101W 6N115W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 133W-138W.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29N125W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW TEXAS 
ACROSS NW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING SE INTO THE AREA N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE 
AREA N OF 10N W OF 115W. A NLY 95-110 KT JETSTREAM ON THE W SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NW 
MEXICO NEAR 25N105W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 110W.

A SURFACE HIGH PRES...1032 MB...IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 33N130W IS STATIONARY. HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. NE TRADES AT 20-25 KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE THE RIDGE FROM 5N-26N W OF 120W...WITH 
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. OTHERWISE LARGE SWELLS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA W OF 115W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL TIGHTEN 
THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY FRI.

$$
DGS