000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 05N79W TO 04N91W...THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 06N102W TO 06N115W TO 
04N127W TO 05N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1029 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N129W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS 
FROM 06N TO 25N W OF 132W...AND FROM 07N TO 28N BETWEEN 127W AND 
132W. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA 
MAINTAINING THESE TRADEWINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE 
THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN...QUICKLY REDUCING THE 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES TO N OF 20N. THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
HIGH CENTER ALSO EXTENDS SE TO A BENIGN AND DIFFUSE COLD FRONTAL 
ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA W-SW TO 
NEAR 19N123W. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE 
FRONT HAS SWEPT S ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC WATERS 
OFFSHORE...PRODUCING A ZONE OF STABLE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS... 
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INITIATED 
NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT. 
SEAS THROUGH THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 25N 
AND 28N OVERNIGHT.  

TO THE SE...GAP WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE TYPICAL 
GAPS AND BAYS...AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC 
AND W CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED. THIS SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...EXPECT GAP WINDS NEAR 20 KT TO 
OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THU...AND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GAP WIND FLOW TO 
GALE FORCE ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
LATE THU OR EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING PUSH OF 
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED LATER...OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING