000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N75W TO 03N81W TO 03N92W...THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 06N102W TO 06N117W TO 
06N133W TO 05N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1028 MB WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N131W HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO A BENIGN REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
NW MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO NEAR 
20N122W. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARE 
PRODUCING A ZONE OF STABLE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS...WHILE THE 
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INITIATED NWLY WINDS 
20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT. SEAS 
THROUGH THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 25N AND 
28N OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND 
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ALSO 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO 23N W OF 
130W...AND FROM 08N TO 28N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THIS AREA OF 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THESE 
TRADEWINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH BEGINS TO 
SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN...QUICKLY REDUCING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES. 

TO THE SE...GAP WIND FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS ALL OF THE TYPICAL 
GAPS AND BAYS...AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC 
AND W CARIBBEAN HAS WEAKENED. THIS SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER EXPECT GAP WINDS AROUND 20 KT TO 
OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY 
DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THU...AND WILL POSSIBLY PRODUCE GAP WIND FLOW TO GALE FORCE 
ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE THU OR 
EARLY FRI MORNING. A STRONGER REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR IS 
EXPECTED LATER...OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
STRIPLING