000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 06N87W. THE ITCZ 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N87W TO 05N111W TO 06N131W TO BEYOND 
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N 
AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 125W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N134W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 19N107W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS FROM 04N TO 22N W OF 125W. THIS AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA MAINTAINING THESE 
TRADEWINDS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NW FLOW WILL 
INCREASE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID 
WEEK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN STRONG TROUGHING OVER 
NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALSO RESULT IN FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELING 
THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND THE PACIFIC FROM 10N TO 12N E OF 90W. THIS WINDS 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH STRONGEST FLOW DURING THE 
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT 
OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
THU...AND WILL POSSIBLY DELIVER GAP FLOW TO GALE FORCE INTO THE 
THE GULF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE THU. LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS 
BARELY REACH GALE FORCE AND BEING FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND ENDING 
FRI EVENING. THIS IS PLAUSIBLE SINCE THIS IS A FAIRLY 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. 
A STRONGER REINFORCING PUSH IS EXPECTED LATER OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$
AL