000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N88W...THEN ITCZ AXIS TO 
03N101W TO 05N110W TO 06N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES ALONG 26/27N WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY E AS A SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA. ASCAT PASS AT 
1800 UTC SHOWED FRESH NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A COLD 
FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT 
AND MON. WINDS OFF NORTHERN BAJA WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT AND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN 
OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST MON...AND ALLOW SW WINDS TO INCREASE 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT. NW SWELL IS 
SWEEPING INTO THE AREA N OF 22N...WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 13 FT.

FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE 
FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N W OF 120W. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL 
DUE TO PERSISTENT NE TRADES. NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH NE SWELL W 
OF 125W THROUGH TUE. DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 09N140W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
CAUSED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W 
AND 135W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
FUNNELING THROUGH NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS SPREADING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON EVENING
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL