000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N77W TO 08N85W TO 03N105W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 03N105W TO 06N125W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 30N123W WILL SHIFT S 
TODAY AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARD 
CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA 
SHOW NW TO N WINDS AROUND 20 KT OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH MON...IN STEP WITH THE 
SUPPORTING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE WINDS OFF NORTHERN BAJA 
WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS S. 
HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST 
MON...ALLOWING AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY LATE MON. NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE 
AREA N OF 22N...WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 14 FT AND PERIODS AROUND 10 
TO 15 SECONDS.

FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST S 
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE...GENERALLY FROM THE ITCZ TO 22N W OF 
130W. SEAS ARE ALREADY 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL DUE TO THE 
PERSISTENT TRADES. NW SWELL WILL MIX WITH THE NE SWELL OVER 
WATERS N OF 11N THROUGH TUE. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA TO 10N140W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH ALONG WITH DECENT TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
123W AND 130W.

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA WITH RESULTING FRESH WINDS SPREADING 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH AT LEAST MON EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING  
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
CHRISTENSEN