000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JAN 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 05N80W TO 06N85W TO 05N92W. ITCZ 
FROM 05N92W TO 04N100W TO 07N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W TO 118W...AND 
WITHIN 30 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 26N126W. 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 125W AND 127W. OTHERWISE 
THE PATTERN N OF 20N W OF 110W IS DOMINATED BY A 1025 MB HIGH 
PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 31N125W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MOSTLY 
20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N...WITH POCKETS OF WINDS 
TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL DRIFT 
SLOWLY E THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NW TO N WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN TRADE 
WIND FLOW. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A 0734 UTC OSCAT PASS SHOWED NW WINDS TO 25 
KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS IS DUE TO A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N125W 
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
THROUGH TODAY AS THE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WERE INDICATING A 
4 MB DIFFERENCE IN PRES. THIS IS MAINTAINING 20 TO 25 KT 
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AIDED BY 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 36 
HOURS AS THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS E.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS 
HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. WHILE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAVE 
DIMINISHED...GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND DATA SHOW LOWER LEVEL WINDS 
TO 30 KT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THIS 
IS MIXING TO THE COAST AND FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI...ALLOWING PAPAGAYO GAP WIND FLOW TO 
PERSIST.

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIP DDSB2 ALONG THE N SIDE OF THE PANAMA CANAL 
WAS REPORTING N TO NE WINDS 20 KT. SOME OF WIND MOMENTUM IS 
LIKELY CONTINUING TO SPILL ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA...AS NOTED IN A 0310 UTC ASCAT PASS.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN