000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JAN 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 9N85W 5N90W. ITCZ 5N95W 7N115W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
110W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N128W THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 
19N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 20N W OF 125W AND 
N OF 20N W OF 130W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF 
THE TROUGH WITH MAIN AXIS ACROSS MEXICO. A 75-95 KT JETSTREAM 
EXTENDS FROM 20N122W NE TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS 
INCREASE TO 100-110 KT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N98W TO 
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL IS ACROSS THE AREA 
S OF 20N BETWEEN 85W-105W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO HONDURAS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT 
TRADES IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 6N-20N 
W OF 120W.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH STRONG NLY WIND 20 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT IN 24 HOURS.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

NW SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 23N 
BETWEEN 120W-135W.

THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS PRODUCT WILL BE AT 2205 UTC.

$$
DGS