000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JAN 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 6N78W 4N95W. ITCZ 5N95W 7N110W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 120W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N128W TO 13N133W. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 15N E OF THE TROUGH WITH MAIN AXIS 
ACROSS MEXICO. A 75-95 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 22N122W NE TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 100-110 KT 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE AXIS. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N89W TO 
THE THE EQUATOR AT 98W. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE 
ITCZ MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL IS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 
85W-115W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO HONDURAS.

HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 105W. AN AREA OF 20 KT TRADES 
IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 5N-18N W OF 
120W WILL SPREAD FROM 6N-19N W OF 115W BY 24 HOURS.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH STRONG NLY WIND IN 
THE 20-25 KT RANGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LARGE NW SWELLS..TO 10 FT...ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 
27N W OF 120W.

$$
DGS