000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 05N79W TO 05N93W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTEND FROM 05N93W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
78W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 150 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRES 1034 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N135W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 06N TO 18N W OF 130W 
AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF THE 
TRADEWINDS...AND BY WED AFTERNOON THE FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO COVER THE AREA FROM 06N TO 20N W OF 115W. THE 
PROXIMITY OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND A TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF THE COAST OF CABO CORRIENTES 
MEXICO. THIS TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE FRESH NW 
TO N WINDS BY TUE NIGHT.

A NW SWELL TRAIN THAT IS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS 
AS HIGH AS 10 FT TO WATERS N OF 20N THROUGH WED. 

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS VEERING OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. CURRENTLY FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH THE WINDS 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N 
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS AREA FUNNELING THROUGH GAPS IN THE THE 
TOPOGRAPHY OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON WITH 
WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ADDED 
COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS.

$$
AL