000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N79W TO 04N77W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N77W 
TO 03N105W TO 05N115W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N11W CONTINUES TO PUSH 
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 28N122W TO 25N129W IS TRAILING THE UPPER 
FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING W OF 130W. THE PERSISTENT DEEP 
LAYER TROUGHING N OF 20N HAS SUPPRESSED SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND 
FLOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL START 
TO INCREASE BY MON AS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. BOTH 
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SECOND UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NE 
OF HAWAII MIGRATING EASTWARD TO 130W N OF 15N BY LATE TUE. THIS 
MAY AID DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 120W BY LATE TUE...FURTHER ENHANCING 
TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH. MEANWHILE...NW TO N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT AND 
PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS WILL PUSH S OF 30N BY LATE 
MON...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 130W BY TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A WINDSAT PASS FROM 0020 UTC REVEALED 
WINDS ONLY AROUND 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN THE 
NEAR GALE FORCE PEAK WINDS REPORTED AT SALINA CRUZ EARLIER IN 
THE DAY...AND THAT DRAINAGE EFFECTS HAVE YET TO SET UP 
OVERNIGHT...WILL HOLD THE GALE WARNING AS SCHEDULED UNTIL 
TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO IS SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO 
DECREASE AND SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE SW GULF 
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC 
THROUGH MON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO DRIVING THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO 
KEEP WINDS FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AS 
THIS HIGH SHIFTS NE THROUGH MON...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS 96W BY MON MORNING. THESE WINDS 
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING AND NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO 
RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT BY THAT TIME AS FAR 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AS 110W.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST DUE TO 
ENHANCED NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PUSHING ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN