000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 08N84W TO 05N95W. ITCZ AXIS 
FROM 05N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N122W CONTINUES TO 
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
TROUGH N OF 26N ALONG 125W IS TRAILING THE UPPER 
FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING W OF 130W. THE PERSISTENT DEEP 
LAYER TROUGHING N OF 20N HAS SUPPRESSED SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND 
FLOW FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL START 
TO INCREASE BY MON AS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS N OF THE AREA. BOTH 
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SECOND UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NE 
OF HAWAII MIGRATING EASTWARD TO 130W N OF 15N BY LATE TUE. THIS 
MAY AID DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE 
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 120W BY LATE TUE...FURTHER ENHANCING 
TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH. MEANWHILE...NW TO N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 9 FT AND 
PERIODS AROUND 13 SECONDS WILL PUSH S OF 30N BY LATE 
MON...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 130W BY TUE.

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...REPORTS FROM SALINA CRUZ ON THE SOUTHERN 
COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOW PEAK WINDS TO 32 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD INDICATION OF PERSISTENT GALE CONDITIONS 
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER 
THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE 
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY MON AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SE AND CUT 
OFF THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INDUCING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MON 
MORNING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO DRIVING THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL ALSO 
KEEP WINDS FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. AS 
THIS HIGH SHIFTS NE THROUGH MON...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG 
WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS 96W BY MON MORNING. THESE WINDS 
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING AND NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO 
RAISE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT BY THAT TIME AS FAR 
DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AS 110W.

GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PERSIST DUE TO 
ENHANCED NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PUSHING ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN