000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 07N85W TO 06N95W. ITCZ FROM 06N95W 
TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 20N140W. A 
75-95 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 13N140W NE TO 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE N OF 25N 
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 119W-125W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH 
ACAPULCO TO 5N10W. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL IS ACROSS THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 85W-120W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE W 
COAST OF COLOMBIA.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N125W TO 21N128W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR 
THE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N127W TO 
26N130W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN 
AREA OF 20 KT TRADES FROM 8N-12N W OF 125W WILL SPREAD FROM 
6N-15N W OF 125W BY 24 HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE EARLY MON.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS