000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150309
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JAN 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 06N94W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N94W TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGHS 
FROM28N125W TO 18N135W...ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N127W. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
CIRCULATION IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NE PACIFIC. THE SURFACE TROUGHS WILL 
MIGRATE NE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON...ALLOWING 
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE EXISTING 
WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS SUPPRESSING TRADE WINDS IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 20N W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE 
FROM 10 TO 20N W OF 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGING BUILDS 
TO THE NORTH. 

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SE OF HAWAII IS 
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE 
ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. 

AN UPPER TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ALONG 108W N OF 08N. DIVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF 
MODEST CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1029 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN 
MORNING...WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS AT SALINA CRUZ NEAR THE 
SOUTHERN END OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS SHOW STEADY N WINDS IN 
EXCESS OF 25 KT...A GOOD INDICATION OF AT LEAST NEAR GALE 
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP DGBE REPORTED 27 KT NE WINDS AT 0000 UTC 
NEAR 10N86W...NEAR OF PAPAGAYO. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
ALSO KEEP WINDS FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. AS THIS 
HIGH SHIFTS E AND INTENSIFIES LATE SUN INTO MON...THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALLOWING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS 98W BY MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WAS NOTED EARLIER IN SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS DUE TO ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN