000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N83W TO 06N94W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N94W 
TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGHS NEAR 130W BETWEEN 20N AND 30N...ASSOCIATED WITH MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N127W. THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE AS A VIGOROUS SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE NE PACIFIC. THE SURFACE TROUGHS 
WILL MIGRATE NE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH 
MON...ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 
120W. THE EXISTING WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS SUPPRESSING TRADE WINDS 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 20N W OF 110W. TRADE WINDS WILL START 
TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 20N W OF 130W THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE 
RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES AREA REMAINS 
CENTERED N OF HAWAII. NW SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM COVERS MUCH OF 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W...ALTHOUGH MOST THIS SWELL WILL 
DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE...WEAK MID LEVEL 
TROUGHING SE OF HAWAII IS SUPPORT AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1031 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF 
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN 
MORNING...WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1546 UTC ASCAT PASS MISSED THE MAIN PLUME OF 
WINDS COMING THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC...AND GIVEN THE PATTERN GALE OR 
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONGOING NEAR THE COAST. A GALE 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MON MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP PHSG REPORTED 26 KT NE WINDS AT 1200 UTC 
NEAR 11.5N89W...DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NW 
GULF OF MEXICO DRIVING THE GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
ALSO KEEP WINDS FRESH TO STRONG DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO. AS THIS 
HIGH SHIFTS E AND INTENSIFIES LATE SUN INTO MON...THE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALLOWING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS TO SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS 98W BY MON MORNING.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS DUE TO ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN