000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS 7N80W TO 5N100W. ITCZ AXIS 5N100W TO 8N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 30N129W. 
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION. THE 
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS S OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 120W-140W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY/STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS IS S OF 29N W OF 115W. A 75-95 KT JETSTREAM 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 17N140W NE TO 25N130W THEN E TO 
25N123W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 
28N117W S TO 9N108W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE 
TROUGH OVER MEXICO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
LAYERED CLOUDS IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE.

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N130W TO 24N118W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR 
THE TROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 28N132W TO 
25N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 
LARGE NW SWELLS...TO 10 FT...ARE NW OF A LINE 30N125W TO 
15N140W. THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TIGHT PRES 
GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND 
NLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS