000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JAN 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05.5N101W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05.5N101W TO 08N121W TO BEYOND 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE AREA 1017 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 
28N132W. A DISSIPATING 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 
42N136W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N105W. THIS IS 
RESULTING IN ONLY A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS NE OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE THAT FEATURE IS CLOSEST TO THE 
RIDGE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SAT AFTERNOON. 
OTHERWISE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA W 
OF 110W IS WEAK...WITH WINDS BELOW 20 KT.

NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS UP TO 10 FT ARE PRESENT OVER THE NW 
PART OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SLOWLY SE 
WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING...TO BELOW 8 FT BY SUN.

GAP WINDS... 
HIGH PRESSURE 1032 MB OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS PROVIDING A 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WILL LOOSEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON. 

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. 
THIS HAS INDUCED GALE FORCE NLY WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN EVENING.

FRESH NLY WINDS TO 20 KT FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL FUNNEL INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH AT LEAST SUN EVENING.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE GAPS IN 
TOPOGRAPHY OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. 
WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE 
ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN KATABATIC WINDS. 

$$
AL