000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JAN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N77W TO 07N85W TO 04N92W THEN ITCZ 
TO 08N113W TO 06N119W TO 07N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N131W. THE UPPER RIDGE 
WILL BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF 
THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH FRI...ALLOWING THE STALLED DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NE AND THE AREA OF 20 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE ONLY SENSIBLE SURFACE WEATHER 
OF INTEREST REMAINS AN AREA OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 29N W 
OF 130W. THE CONTINUES A WEAK PRES PATTERN W OF 110W...WITH 
FRESH TRADES LIMITED TO AN AREA FROM 17N TO 21N W OF 135W. SHIP 
AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW MUCH OF THE NW SWELL THAT PREVIOUSLY 
COVERED THE AREA W OF 110W HAS DIMINISHED BELOW 8 FT. ANOTHER 
TRAIN OF NW SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...AND WILL COVER THE REGION N OF 08N W OF 120W 
BY 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL SUPPORT NW WINDS TO 20 KT DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING...AND LASTING INTO SAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND FRI. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG HIGH 
PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMPT 
GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE TONIGHT...REACHING 
GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI MORNING GIVEN 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN PUSH TO GALE FORCE AGAIN LATER ON FRI 
AND SAT NIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL 
ALLOW WINDS TO REACH 20 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING 
HOURS ON FRI. THIS WILL BE REINFORCED AS TRADE WIND FLOW OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN INCREASES FRI AND SAT. THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO ALLOW 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE FRI AS 
THE NORTHERLY WINDS VEER MORE EASTERLY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN