000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JAN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 05N95W TO 07N107W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 07N107W TO 10N113W TO 06N118W TO BEYOND W OF 
08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG EITHER AXIS.    

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N129W TO 28N130W. THE 
CYCLONE WILL STALL NEAR 29N130W...TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY SENSIBLE SURFACE WEATHER OF INTEREST 
IS AN AREA OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 29N W OF 130W SHOWING 
UP ON A 1826 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS CONTINUES A WEAK PRES PATTERN 
W OF 110W...WITH FRESH TRADES LIMITED TO AN AREA FROM 16N TO 21N 
W OF 135W. SHIP AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW PERSISTENT NW SWELL OVER 
MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 
HOURS. THE 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH AS 
THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE FRI. THE NW SWELL WILL 
LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT OVER THE THROUGH THU...JUST AS ANOTHER 
TRAIN OF NW SWELL ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 31N129W TO NEAR 
15N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM FROM 12N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
PROMPT GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE THU. WINDS 
WILL POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI 
MORNING GIVEN OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN PUSH TO GALE FORCE AGAIN 
LATER ON FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW WINDS 
TO REACH 20 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN