000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JAN 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 06N88W TO 06N105W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 06N105W TO BEYOND W OF 08N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ALONG EITHER AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N129W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 
WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 31N130W. THE SURFACE 
LOW WILL STALL NEAR 29N130W...TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ONLY SENSIBLE SURFACE WEATHER OF INTEREST 
IS AN AREA OF 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS N OF 29N W OF 130W SHOWING 
UP ON A 1826 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE LOW PRES IS ALSO CONTINUE A 
WEAK PRES PATTERN W OF 110W...WITH FRESH TRADES LIMITED TO AN 
AREA FROM 16N TO 21N W OF 135W. SHIP AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW 
PERSISTENT NW SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 115W. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS W 
OF THE LOW WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE 
NE FRI. THE NW SWELL WILL LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT OVER THE 
THROUGH THU...JUST AS ANOTHER TRAIN OF NW SWELL ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP 
LAYER CYCLONE NEAR 31N129W TO NEAR 15N140W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON 
THE SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG 
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
PROMPT GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS LATE THU. WINDS 
WILL POSSIBLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI 
MORNING GIVEN OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE...THEN PUSH TO GALE FORCE AGAIN 
LATER ON FRI AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW WINDS 
TO REACH 20 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN