000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JAN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N75W TO 05.5N83W TO 04N94W TO 05N98W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 07N107W TO 06N123W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S AND 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N W OF 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO A WEAKENING MID LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 24N137W SWD TO A BROAD BASE NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 140W. DEEP LAYERED SWLY FLOW EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES TO INDUCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO SMALL ZONES OF MODEST CONVECTION BETWEEN 14N AND 20N FROM 115W TO 130W...THAT ARE BEING ENHANCE BY UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. S OF 14N AND E OF THE TROUGH...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ MENTIONED ABOVE. AT LOW LEVELS...A RELATIVE WEAK PRES PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA W OF 110W. A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS NE PORTIONS N OF 23N ALONG ABOUT 126W...AND HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS LOCATED NEAR 35N128W...MOVING S TOWARDS THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WILL SINK INTO THE GENERAL AREA OF 29N130W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CONTINUE TO BLOCK SURFACE HIGH PRES FROM BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK AND BENIGN REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WAS ENTERING N PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 30N130W TO 27N137W...WITH FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND IT. HIGH PRES WELL TO THE N OF THIS REGION...1036 MB NEAR 48N140W EXTENDS SW TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT IS OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ALONG THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE FRESH TRADEWINDS TO AROUND 20 KT FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 132W AND FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 137W. LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 8 TO 9 FT W OF 110W...AND UP TO 10 FT THROUGH THESE ZONES OF FRESH TRADEWINDS. STRONG CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 140W...AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ARE CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 134W AND 141W...AS VERIFIED BY THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. E OF 110W...HIGH PRES HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST 48 HOURS...LEADING TO DIMINISHED TRADEWINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND GAP WINDS THROUGH THE TYPICAL PASSES OF CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT... BECOMING ENHANCED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BY NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. HOWEVER...A NEW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND HAS REACHED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IS DRIVING NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND SPILLING INTO THE EPAC WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE VEER E TO SE IN ADVANCE OF A NEW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THU EVENING AND NIGHT AND INITIATE A RENEWED NLY GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE THU NIGHT. WINDS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE BY FRI EVENING. $$ STRIPLING