000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092118
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06.5N77W TO 06N85W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 04N94W TO 07N104W TO 04N120W TO 
06N128W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WAS LOCATED N OF THE AREA NEAR 
36N128W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH 
PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 08N TO 20N W OF 126W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL...WITH PERIODS OF 16-19 SECONDS ALONG THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL TRAIN...CONTINUES TO MOVE SE THROUGH 
THE FORECAST WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CURRENTLY 
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THESE NW SWELLS WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE...REACHING THE NW COAST OF S AMERICA 
TUE MORNING...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
ARE FLOWING THROUGH THE GAPS IN THE TOPOGRAPHY OVER NICARAGUA 
AND COSTA RICA INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT.  
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS HAS STARTED 
TO WEAKEN...AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAVE 
DIMINISHED. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT BY TONIGHT...BUT WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW WINDS MAY 
REACH TO 20 KT EARLY TUE MORNING. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GREAT BASIN 
REGION WHICH HAS TIGHTENED THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. NWLY WINDS OF 20 KT PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. THE AREA 
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT 
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TUE MORNING. A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
SETTLE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN A BRIEF EPISODE OF FRESH 20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON WEDNESDAY.

$$
AL